In a significant geopolitical maneuver, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has chosen Russia as the destination for his first foreign visit in his third term, scheduled for July 8, 2024. This visit highlights the enduring ties between New Delhi and Moscow despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and pressure from Western powers.
India’s Profitable Partnership with Russia
India has notably refrained from condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or imposing sanctions. Instead, it has capitalized on discounted Russian oil, which has become a cornerstone of its energy imports. In May alone, India imported a record 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil, comprising nearly 41% of its total oil imports. This surge in imports comes as European countries reduced their purchases from Russia, enabling India to secure Russian oil at significant discounts.
The increased import of Russian oil has significantly impacted India’s overall energy strategy. In contrast to the growing share of Russian oil, imports from Saudi Arabia have decreased to a 10-month low, and purchases from the US and other Middle Eastern countries have also seen a decline. For instance, Saudi oil imports dropped by 16.4% in May, while Russian oil imports rose by 14.7% from April and 5.9% from the previous year.
Military and Strategic Cooperation
Modi’s visit is expected to bolster military and strategic cooperation between India and Russia. The purchase of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia, despite strong objections from the US, exemplifies India’s commitment to maintaining its defense ties with Moscow. This purchase is seen as a significant move that underscores India’s willingness to prioritize its strategic interests over aligning with Western preferences.
Domestic Political Dynamics
Domestically, the BJP faces significant challenges. Certain elements within the party believe that the US has abandoned India, contributing to the BJP’s recent electoral losses of around 30-40 seats. These losses are attributed to a coordinated campaign against the BJP, highlighting issues such as human rights violations and the ill-treatment of minorities. The consolidation of Muslim votes, which have largely supported the I.N.D.I.A. bloc led by the Indian National Congress, has further complicated the political landscape for the BJP.
The BJP core team views these setbacks as a form of punishment for not aligning with US and Western efforts against Russia. They point out that despite Western pressure, India has continued to buy large quantities of Russian oil, arguing that Europe too continues to purchase gas from Russia.
Western Powers’ Response
The US and its allies are closely monitoring these developments. The Western bloc is concerned that India’s substantial oil imports from Russia are indirectly funding Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine. However, US officials, including US Treasury Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Eric Van Nostrand, have acknowledged that it is in Washington’s interest to keep energy supplies flowing to prevent any global supply shocks exacerbated by the Ukraine war.
Strategic Infrastructure Projects
India’s strategic infrastructure projects further highlight its complex geopolitical balancing act. The Chabahar Port in Iran, funded and operated by India, is a crucial component of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This corridor aims to link India, Iran, and Russia, enhancing trade connectivity and bypassing traditional maritime routes. Additionally, India has been patching up its relations with Azerbaijan to ensure the smooth development of the INSTC. These developments are being watched with concern by the US, but India appears resolute in advancing its connectivity projects despite Western apprehensions.
Geopolitical Implications
India’s deepening ties with Russia come at a time when China has also increased its imports of Russian energy, further strengthening the economic lifeline for Moscow amidst Western sanctions. Together, China and India have become the largest consumers of Russian crude oil, with significant increases in their imports over the past year. This trend highlights a potential realignment in global energy markets and geopolitical alliances, as Asian powers assert their strategic autonomy.
Conclusion
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s forthcoming visit to Russia underscores the complex interplay of economic interests and geopolitical strategy. However, the BJP’s ambiguous policy of benefiting from both the US and Russia may not be sustainable in the long run. India faces the challenge of choosing sides and standing for moral values rather than prioritizing transactional and economic benefits. Continuing to buy record amounts of Russian oil while being part of alliances like the QUAD could damage India’s reputation, credibility, and moral standing on the global stage. India, claiming to be a strategic partner of the US and a friend to Russia, would in fact, under BJP leadership, be a friend to no one.
The author, Atta Rasool Malik, a veteran from Pakistan’s semi-tribal regions, possesses an M.Phil. in international relations from the National Defence University, Islamabad. His expertise spans South Asian and Middle Eastern politics, political economy, and Islamic and Jewish theology.