Political Unrest, Economic Struggles, and Security Challenges
Politics
- Modi’s inclination towards peace with Pakistan is limited and unlikely to result in a resumption of the bilateral peace process.
- The trilateral alliance of Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and Turkey highlights growing cooperation among the three countries, aiming to gain more influence over regional trade and transit.
- The Pakistani government’s repressive measures, unpopular economic policies, and military alignment have led to widespread discontent, further eroding its support. The military may install a technocratic government, indicating a move towards hybrid autocratic rule to prevent Khan’s return to power.
- The military-backed Pakistani government is planning to ban PTI, putting Pakistan’s democratic future at risk of significant public and judicial reactions. However, efforts to suppress PTI have backfired, increasing sympathy for imprisoned Imran Khan.
Economy
Pakistan’s 2024–25 budget only burdens existing taxpayers and is unlikely to significantly change the economic situation on the ground, lacking major reforms.
Security
- India’s pursuit of hypersonic technology suggests it aims to deploy hypersonic weapons soon, potentially leading to a first-strike strategy that would negatively impact regional strategic stability.
- Iran’s missile exchanges with Pakistan reveal the limitations of nuclear deterrence, complicating Pakistan’s defense, which relies on nuclear escalation to counter India’s conventional superiority.
- The BJP-led Indian government blames Pakistan for shifting its terrorist focus from the Kashmir Valley to the Eastern Pir Panjal range in Jammu Division, targeting Doda, Kishtwar, Ramban, Reasi, and Kathua.