The Israel-Hamas conflict has security repercussions beyond the Middle East, particularly in Europe. Global jihadi groups like the Islamic State and al-Qaeda may use the conflict to recruit and mobilize, while far-right extremists may amplify Islamophobic content to trigger a civil war. The security repercussions in Europe include the risk of violent extremism, terrorism, and potential foreign influence. Source: Thomas Renard and Joana Cook, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism
Trends in Terrorism: What’s on the Horizon in 2024?
The threat of politically motivated violence is at the core of terrorism, thus it will be important to monitor elections in 2024, when eight of the ten most populous countries will hold elections, including India, Pakistan, and the US. The terrorism threat is far from static, and the shift towards “near-peer” competition has damaged morale within the intelligence community, making it harder to recruit counterterrorism top-tier talent in government and academia. Source: Colin P. Clarke, FPRI
Pakistan: Persisting Instability
Pakistan faces a multifaceted crisis in 2024, involving political, economic, security, and institutional challenges, with leaders seeking short-term fixes. Elections are scheduled, but postponement is possible. Its economy will remain in crisis mode, and the military’s involvement in policy-making may worsen the situation. The terrorist threat will metastasize in 2024 as Pakistan plans to launch cross-border strike against the TTP inside Afghanistan. Source: Sushant Sareen, ORF
India Points Out Washington’s Flawed Myanmar Policy
India worries that the US policy is pushing resource-rich Myanmar into China’s arms. Delhi not only shares long land and sea borders with Myanmar but also views it as a strategic corridor to Southeast Asia. Given the cross-border people movement—some trained and armed by China—close counterinsurgency cooperation with Myanmar is vital for India’s security. Source: Brahma Chellaney, ASPI
US-India Relations Are Shaken but Not Shattered!
Attempt by an Indian official to assassinate an American is a gut punch, but strategic choices will prevail. Morals and values don’t affect US’s choice of strategic partners. Competition with China is its long-term priority, and India best fits the bill. The strain in their relationship is not beyond repair, however, transnational nature of the crime could impact trust in the long run. Source: Michael Kugelman, Lowy Institute