Potential Gaza Exodus Raises Global Concerns over Refugee Crisis
If Gazans are pushed out en masse to Egypt or elsewhere, the refugee crisis could metastasize, leading to global repercussions. This could exacerbate Middle East resentment against Israel and the US by fuelling narratives of the long-term annexation of Palestinian territories by Israel. Source: Shelly Culbertson, RAND
Two-State Solution Gains Momentum with Arab Support Post-Abraham Accords
Israel –or a new Israeli govt– will have to negotiate within the context of a transformed region following the Abraham accords and any emergent Palestinian state. It will be well embedded in a powerful coalition of moderate Arab states. The role of Arab states, especially GCC members, will be key to advancing towards a two-state solution. Source: Paul Salem, Thinking Middle East
Global Arms Sales Dip 3.5% in 2022; Asia, Oceania, ME Surge on New Contracts
SIPRI reports a 3.5% decrease in top 100 arms sales revenue in 2022, due to falling revenues of US/ European companies. Yet, arms revenues in Asia, Oceania, and the ME increased substantially, driven by a surge in new contracts, suggesting global arms revenues will rise significantly in the coming years. Source: SIPRI
BJP Triumphs in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, Secures Madhya Pradesh
The BJP won Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh state assembly elections while maintaining its presence in Madhya Pradesh, signalling PM Modi’s enduring popularity. BJP’s wins exceeded expectations, as opinion and exit polls indicated a tighter race between the BJP and Congress. The Congress party won in Telangana. Source: Stratfor
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia Resolve 15-Year Stalemate, Pave the Way for GCC Trade Deal
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia have reached an agreement on investment terms for a potential FTA with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It was stalled due to modalities disputes since 2004. Being GCC’s first trade/ investment deal in 15 years. The accord follows Saudi and Emirati initiatives to enforce economic regulations, avoiding direct handouts or bailouts to Pakistan. Source: Stratfor
Unchecked Extrajudicial Killings: Gupta’s Arrest Highlights Southeast Asia’s Alarming Trend
Extrajudicial killings and kidnappings have increased as countries have mostly gotten away with them with minor diplomatic sanctions. The arrest of Nikhil Gupta in the US shows that even smaller countries in Southeast Asia engage in extrajudicial assassination or kidnapping as they see no diplomatic punishment whatsoever. Source: Joshua Kurlantzick, CFR