The War in Gaza: Israel Will Win Militarily but Not Politically
Israel will win militarily against Hamas in Gaza, but not politically. Its policies and tactics have cost it international standing, including among traditional allies and friends. Former PM Ehud Barak suggests removal of Netanyahu’s ultra-right coalition as part of a solution (Ian Dudgeon, Australian Institute of International Affairs)
Israel Resumes Hostage Talks and Narrows Gaps with Hamas, Sources Say
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar stopped engaging with Qatari mediators in Doha after the IDF attacked Al-Shifa hospital but has now resumed. If agreed, the Gaza hostage deal will be carried out in two phases. 50 women and children will be released for a five-day ceasefire in the first phase. A second phase will release hostages believed to be held by other factions. (Axios, Barak Ravid)
Pakistan: Government May Seek Another IMF Loan Following First Bailout Review
Pakistan’s Finance Minister hinted at seeking another loan from the IMF after reaching a $700 million agreement with it. However, the February 2024 elections may complicate the prospects for and timing of another program. Pakistan’s economic challenges and external financing requirements will average $30 billion annually from 2025 to 2028. ( Stratfor)
Afghanistan: Pakistan Outlines Regional ‘Understanding’ With Afghan Taliban
Pakistan’s special representative on Afghanistan said that Afghanistan’s neighboring countries and Russia have a mutual understanding that allows bilateral trade, currency swaps, and barter trade agreements with Kabul. This agreement stipulates member countries to recognize the Taliban simultaneously, not unilaterally, under specified conditions, suggesting a regional consensus on engaging with the Afghan Taliban. ( Stratfor)
Japan brings Bangladesh into the folds of new security framework
Bangladesh has been added to Japan’s security framework. Japan intends to counter China’s rising regional power. Japan included Bangladesh strategically to retain its influence in South Asia. Bangladesh will get military aid under the new security framework and remain under the US’s umbrella. (Asif Muztaba Hassan, East Asia Forum)
Bangladesh’s political stability is threatened by violence and protests ahead of the 2024 elections.
Opposition groups are demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the formation of a neutral government. The violence has killed 13 people and injured hundreds. The United States has called for a democratic election in Bangladesh, while China, Russia, and India have supported Hasina. (Ali Riaz, Atlantic Council)