Is Benjamin Netanyahu Planning an Escape Through Lebanon?
Biden administration deployed significant military assets to the eastern Mediterranean to deter Hezbollah (and Iran) from widening the Gaza war. And additionally to dissuade the Israeli government to go beyond Gaza. But it may in fact do the opposite, encourage Netanyahu to calculate that a military escalation in the north is again his cheaper—default—option. (Source: Yezid Sayigh, Carnegie)
South Africa refers Israel to ICC
Pretoria accuses the Israeli government of committing genocide in Gaza. South Africa has asked the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate the Israeli government for alleged war crimes in Gaza, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced on Wednesday during a two-day visit to Qatar. (Source: RT)
The Arab Gulf and Israel’s War on Gaza
The Gulf States Suppress Pro-Palestine Social Media Activity. Qatar is criticized for its Hamas ties, drawing international attention to its diplomatic ties. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have restricted pro-Palestine posts on social media, signaling a geopolitical shift. The rise of Arab influencers supporting Israel is a shift from previous partnerships. This trend’s effects on public opinion are unclear, raising questions regarding Middle East politics and regional dynamics. (Source: Karim El Taki and Hind Al Ansari, Carnegie)
Escalating Hamas-Israel Conflict Raises Terror Threats in the West
The International Criminal Court (ICC) holds jurisdiction in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. However, most Western countries either voted against or abstained from supporting it. The UN Security Council faces challenges in adopting a resolution on compliance with international humanitarian law. The situation leads to a surge in casualties and mounting political pressure in Western nations. This inconsistency sends the wrong signal, undermining the international legal order and failing to hold Israel accountable for the ongoing conflict. (Source: Tanya Mehra, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism)
Biden and Xi Seek Common Ground at APEC Amid Global Challenges
U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for over four hours on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Despite longstanding tensions, the two leaders agreed to work together on curbing fentanyl production, resuming military-to-military communications, and engaging in intergovernmental dialogue on artificial intelligence. While challenges remain, this high-level engagement suggests a willingness to improve relations between the world’s two largest economies. (Source: South China Morning Post)
Tension Brews as Bangladesh Election Commission Sets January 7 Poll Date
Bangladesh’s Election Commission has declared January 7 as the date for the upcoming elections, sparking anticipation of heightened political unrest and protests. Doubts linger over the Commission’s assurance of free and fair elections, with the opposition skeptical. The potential for violence looms large, as the Awami League is expected to clamp down on dissent and government critics, posing risks to supply chains and business activities. (Source: Stratfor)
Nawaz Sharif’s Return Fails to Ignite India-Pakistan Dialogue
The return of former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan has failed to generate any significant momentum in India-Pakistan relations. India’s assertive diplomacy and Pakistan’s persistent struggles with political instability and sluggish economic growth have rendered it less relevant in India’s foreign policy calculations. While Sharif’s sporadic political statements have not helped, the prospect of meaningful engagement remains elusive.(Source: Priyanka Singh, IDSA)