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- Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah’s Speech Offers No New Insights: The underwhelming nature of Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on November 3 reflects Hezbollah’s unpreparedness for war, as the group remains constrained by Lebanon’s economic collapse. The group is expected to continue low-level attacks against Israel, allowing it to appear powerful without escalating to a full war. (David Daoud, Atlantic Council)
- Blinken’s Call for Humanitarian Ceasefire in Gaza Met with Skepticism: During his Middle East tour, US State Secretary Blinken proposed humanitarian pauses in Israel-Hamas war. However, Israel is tied to hostage release and Arab states still call for a cease-fire, signifying a firm division among US’s regional partners. In addition, Washington’s middle-ground position lacks an end-of-war solution, further reducing its mediating capabilities in the region. (Stratfor)
- CIA Director Embarks on Diplomatic Mission to Israel and Middle East: To reinforce US commitment to intelligence cooperation, CIA director Bill Burns is visiting Israel and other countries in the region this week. Burns arrived in Israel on Sunday and will visit Qatar, Egypt, Jordan and the UAE for talks on Gaza war and the release of hostages held by Hamas. (Barak Ravid, Axios)
- India’s Role in the Shaping Global Dynamics of the Modern Era: India, the most important of the emerging powers, is increasingly aligning with the US on China, but it is not squarely in Washington’s camp. Delhi views Quad membership as pivotal to its regional strategy of balancing China, however, it appears to avoid deep interoperability with the US forces and looks wary of focusing too heavily on security. (Christopher S. Chivvis, Carnegie)
- India and Russia Forge Stronger Ties: A Deep Dive into Their Strategic Dimensions: Russia supports India in multilateral forums and advocates for a multipolar world. Delhi’s aim to become a US$5 trillion economy by 2025 will gravitate it towards the West which may dilute its relationship with Russia, but Moscow will remain its key partner in context of strategic issues in the Eurasian region. (Ankita Dutta, ORF)
- Saudia and Russia Unite: Commit to Voluntary Production Cuts Through 2023: Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed to maintain their voluntary production cuts through the end of 2023 demonstrating they don’t feel to intervene in the market amid Israel-Hamas war. The conflict has had a meagre impact on oil prices, and not affected broader Middle Eastern oil production. (Stratfor)
- Middle East Oil Embargo: Irrational but Not Unthinkable: Oil prices indicate that a 1973-style Arab embargo on oil exports is unlikely to solve the Gaza crisis as Middle East producers are keeping the flow of oil shipments and geopolitics separate. Oil traders main concern is the fear that the war could engulf the entire region, not an embargo. (Andrew Critchlow, Global Commodity Insights)
