Election year, 2024

The year 2024 as predicted by Stratfor

Med & Academic Research
Overview
  • In 2024, a series of local, national, and supranational elections in countries with a population of roughly 3 billion will shape global events for the rest of the decade. Some countries will vote amid difficult socioeconomic conditions (South Africa and Pakistan), while others will vote amid rising geopolitical tensions (Taiwan and the EU). The leaders elected will significantly influence international relations for years to come.
  • India’s general elections in Apr-May will be a massive event, with an unsurprising outcome as the BJP and its allies are likely to remain in power. While this will mean policy continuity in the world’s most important emerging market, it will also mean persisting intercommunal tensions that have characterized the country in recent years.
  • Finally, 2024 will see the conflict in Gaza enter a new stage. This would come as an elusive nuclear deal between the US and Iran also keeps the risk high of regional escalation, which could include targeting of oil and gas infrastructure in places like Saudi Arabia.
Global Trends
  • While the US election in Nov will not change the administration in 2024, the world will start to weigh the consequences of a Donald Trump victory long ahead of the vote, which would usher in the return of trade wars and skepticism about NATO.
  • The US will expand technology restrictions on China, benefiting India, Malaysia, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries seeking to attract investment.
  • China’s economy will slow down in 2024, but not to the point of producing a financial crisis, which means that the impact on emerging economies will be manageable.
  • Western material and financial support for Ukraine’s war efforts will fall due to resource and political constraints amid an apparent stalemate on the frontline through 2024, but a cease-fire between Moscow and Kyiv or even substantive negotiations is unlikely.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin will remain firmly in power as Russia’s economy remains stable amid record investments to increase war production.
  • Progress on a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan is likely, but the risk of flare-ups or a return to full-scale war in the region will remain elevated.
  • Sahel countries will remain vulnerable to political instability as jihadist groups threaten regional hubs, creating new and deeper openings for Russian influence in the region.
  • The risk of military incidents and diplomatic crises in the South China Sea and on the Korean Peninsula will rise, though war remains unlikely. Myanmar civil war poses a low risk of inflaming separatist movements across Southeast Asia.
  • Israel will occupy the Gaza Strip, facing an insurgency, regional instability, diplomatic pushback, and domestic political uncertainty. The US and Iran are highly unlikely to reach a nuclear deal, while Israel will likely retaliate against Iran for supporting Hamas, which might lead to escalation, including risk of attacks on oil and gas infrastructure.
  • Turkey will work to stabilize its economy by maintaining its technocratic strategy, giving Ankara greater flexibility to pursue an opportunistic foreign policy.
  • Economic competition between Gulf Arab states will deepen, particularly between Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar, which will seek economic advantages against one another while de-risking their foreign policies abroad.
  • Brussels will maintain strong coop with Washington ahead of the US presidential elections, to de-risk its relations with China and to maintain unity over Ukraine. June elections will likely yield more conservative, yet still largely moderate, EU institutions.
  • Europe’s largest countries will experience political turbulence throughout 2024, with frequent intra-coalition disputes in Germany and Italy and a difficult coexistence between government and Parliament in France.
  • The race to exploit, develop, and regulate Artificial Intelligence will accelerate in 2024.
  • Skepticism, backsliding concerns regarding climate change will grow even as countries draft new emissions reduction plans to be submitted during 2024.
Pakistan
  • Pakistan is scheduled to hold general elections Feb. 8, though the risk of militant attacks could cause the government to delay the vote.
  • In the likely event that former PM Imran Khan is barred from running, he may support another PTI candidate over whom he can exert influence. Disagreements within the party regarding Khan’s replacement could hinder party unity and electoral chances.
  • Should Khan in fact be allowed to run and win, civil-military tensions will increase and high levels of social unrest are likely. Yet, a win for former PM Nawaz Sharif’s PMLN would reaffirm military influence in the country’s politics.
  • Disagreements between Sharif and the military would be possible, particularly concerning handling of militancy threats and India, Afghanistan relations.
  • Though the eventual premier will want to continue improving Pakistan’s economy, like the IMF forecasted inflation drop from 23.6% to 12.2% in 2024, Sharif or whoever wins will recall that previous IMF austerity measures led to unrest; Sharif may backtrack on reforms for fear of such protests.
  • Although sporadic unrest might disrupt supply chains and other business activities, the projected economic growth and decreased inflation in 2024 should strengthen investor confidence in Pakistan. The arrival of IMF funds should help stabilize the economy and bolster foreign exchange reserves.
India
  • Polls indicate the BJP is likely to win India’s next elections which will see campaign rhetoric surrounding religious, ethnic and caste issues become harsher, with the BJP’s Hindu-nationalist ideology exacerbating religious divisions. Apropos, violence is likely in various states.
  • In the foreign policy sphere, India will continue its coop with the US to ensure Indo-Pacific region stability and to counter China’s growing influence.
  • India and the US in 2024 will likely cultivate military-to-military ties aimed at bolstering defense coop and India’s industrial base. Potential arrestors such as Indo-Russia ties and a foiled Indian attempt to assassinate a US-based Sikh separatist are unlikely to significantly hamper ties.
  • India-China relations meanwhile will remain a complex blend of economic collaboration and rivalry for regional influence. India will likely continue trying to lessen its reliance on China, boosting domestic manufacturing in technology and defense sectors in a bid to further develop India’s industrial base.
Bangladesh
  • Bangladesh will face economic slowdowns and disruptions to business amid political instability. High inflation coupled with potential IMF-mandated austerity measures might incite renewed wage disputes.
  • PM Sheikh Hasina’s likely victory will lead to a continuation of demonstrations and blockages, exacerbating government repression and economic turbulence.
  • If Bangladesh faces intense, widespread and persistent unrest and the military perceives that the government is unable to restore order, it could intervene to crack down on protesters, opening the door to a military-led government.
  • Source: Stratfor